Bitcoin's trend reversal signals on TD9 strict indicator

Bitcoin's trend reversal signals on TD9 strict indicator

I'm a really big fan of Tom Demark’s TD9 indicator. Tone Vays is famous for using it. It has two different counts. One it counts candles from 1 to 9. 9 usually means there should come a one to four candle correction. When the previous 9 high gets taken another count starts. Which count is called buy/sell countdown. It goes to 13. 13 meaning it is the end of a trend. Reversal might be incoming. Not many know that there are different rules on how to count buy/sell countdown, and the most famous is loose than. But there is a strict buy/sell countdown. For that, I’ve developed this indicator of my own. I’ve found all possible rules of 13 countdowns and merged them together so I’d get the best fit among gold, BTC, and S&P 500.

 

The first couple of examples of how powerful those reversals signals could be:

BTC_vs_USD_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal

Gold USD bottom of 2016 and the top of 2020 on a weekly scale.

GOLD_vs_USD_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal_based_on_weekly_chart

S&P 500 bottom this year on 4H candles.

SPY_500_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal_4h_chart

XRPUSD Bottom on weekly.

XRPUSD_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal_weekly_chart

And here are the warning signs we have right now:
I strongly believe that Bitcoin CME futures are the leading indicator of bitcoin’s price discovery. And CME is giving 13 on the weekly scale now with the top 9th candle, which I see as a double reversal signal.

BTC_Bitcoin_CME_Futures_weekly_chart_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal

Another thing I watch is the Bitcoin / Gold ratio.

FIAT is unstable and goes down over time. Even more this year with all the stimulus to help the economy in these hard pandemic times. That’s why I believe that in the long run, the bitcoin price will never stop growing. It just can’t, dollar printing machines will never stop, and Bitcoin is a limited asset. But nevertheless, the Bitcoin / Gold ratio is also giving 13 reversal signals on a weekly scale.

BTC_vs_Gold_weekly_chart_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal

Another bad sign is that on a regular BTCUSD chart, on the Monthly scale we’re at 9th candle. Which in TD9 rules would mean that 1 to 4 candle correction next should come. That could extend correction till May.

BTC_vs_USD_monthly_chart_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_Signal

And here are some of my personal views about that Bitcoin all-time high we have reached this year. Did we do that for real? Did bitcoin hit an all-time high, or FIAT hit an all-time low? Looking at the Bitcoin / Gold ratio, we’re far away from an all-time high, and now we’re facing very strong resistance which might be too much at this moment. 

BTCUSD_vs_Gold_weekly_chart_Triple_EMA_Forecast_Reversal_short_Signal

Another chart I like to look at is the Total market cap chart on TradingView. Here we can also see that we didn’t hit an all-time high here and we’re facing very strong resistance same as in BTC / Gold.

Crypto_total_market_cap_usd_weekly_chart

But does it mean we’ll reverse now? There are many signs, when I start hearing that people are buying 36k calls for January and my friends are waiting for a straight price jump to 35k, I think we could be topping out at least for this moment. But we could still end up this month strong. We could still see 25k this year, but I’m sure lower price ranges are imminent at the beginning of 2021. But of course, anything could happen, we just have to play probabilities and probabilities are higher for reversal now in my eyes.

 

Where do I think the price could go if we actually face correction now? We have two strong price growth lines and the day we reach the first one, it might match with the 200 daily average traded price line. That would be $14,500. If that line doesn’t hold, another strong one would be at $10,900, which could match with the 200 weekly averaged traded price line when that price level is reached.

BTC_bitcoin_vs_us_dollar_usd_perpetual_inverse_swap_contract_weekly_chart

What is your opinion on Bitcoin price at beginning of 2021? The one thing for sure, I can't wait to see what happens next.

Darius


Posted 10 months ago by Darius

Comments

Vajra 10 months ago

Awesome article !
Is your TD indicator available on TV? To try or purchase.
Cheers

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