Bitcoin's trend reversal signals on TD9 strict indicator
I'm a really big fan of Tom Demark’s TD9 indicator. Tone Vays is famous for using it. It has two different counts. One it counts candles from 1 to 9. 9 usually means there should come a one to four candle correction. When the previous 9 high gets taken another count starts. Which count is called buy/sell countdown. It goes to 13. 13 meaning it is the end of a trend. Reversal might be incoming. Not many know that there are different rules on how to count buy/sell countdown, and the most famous is loose than. But there is a strict buy/sell countdown. For that, I’ve developed this indicator of my own. I’ve found all possible rules of 13 countdowns and merged them together so I’d get the best fit among gold, BTC, and S&P 500.
The first couple of examples of how powerful those reversals signals could be:
Gold USD bottom of 2016 and the top of 2020 on a weekly scale.
S&P 500 bottom this year on 4H candles.
XRPUSD Bottom on weekly.
And here are the warning signs we have right now:
I strongly believe that Bitcoin CME futures are the leading indicator of bitcoin’s price discovery. And CME is giving 13 on the weekly scale now with the top 9th candle, which I see as a double reversal signal.
Another thing I watch is the Bitcoin / Gold ratio.
FIAT is unstable and goes down over time. Even more this year with all the stimulus to help the economy in these hard pandemic times. That’s why I believe that in the long run, the bitcoin price will never stop growing. It just can’t, dollar printing machines will never stop, and Bitcoin is a limited asset. But nevertheless, the Bitcoin / Gold ratio is also giving 13 reversal signals on a weekly scale.
Another bad sign is that on a regular BTCUSD chart, on the Monthly scale we’re at 9th candle. Which in TD9 rules would mean that 1 to 4 candle correction next should come. That could extend correction till May.
And here are some of my personal views about that Bitcoin all-time high we have reached this year. Did we do that for real? Did bitcoin hit an all-time high, or FIAT hit an all-time low? Looking at the Bitcoin / Gold ratio, we’re far away from an all-time high, and now we’re facing very strong resistance which might be too much at this moment.
Another chart I like to look at is the Total market cap chart on TradingView. Here we can also see that we didn’t hit an all-time high here and we’re facing very strong resistance same as in BTC / Gold.
But does it mean we’ll reverse now? There are many signs, when I start hearing that people are buying 36k calls for January and my friends are waiting for a straight price jump to 35k, I think we could be topping out at least for this moment. But we could still end up this month strong. We could still see 25k this year, but I’m sure lower price ranges are imminent at the beginning of 2021. But of course, anything could happen, we just have to play probabilities and probabilities are higher for reversal now in my eyes.
Where do I think the price could go if we actually face correction now? We have two strong price growth lines and the day we reach the first one, it might match with the 200 daily average traded price line. That would be $14,500. If that line doesn’t hold, another strong one would be at $10,900, which could match with the 200 weekly averaged traded price line when that price level is reached.
What is your opinion on Bitcoin price at beginning of 2021? The one thing for sure, I can't wait to see what happens next.
Posted 1 year ago
Awesome article !
Is your TD indicator available on TV? To try or purchase.
Really interesting article. Thank you.